A New Era of Project Economics and Risk Analysis
A New Era of Project Economics and
Risk Analysis
in Face of Uncertainty
September 12th - 14th 2017 –Jakarta
Moving from the static approach to probabilistic and dynamic approach framework
for improved investment decision making in upstream project
This three day course is designed for professional or investor who wants to learn investment evaluation in upstream project and to improve their skills in evaluating techniques including risk quantification.
At the end of the course participants will:
- Have acquired the knowledge of best practice of investment strategy in upstream project
- Have acquired the skills to identify, model and evaluate a project using deterministic and probabilistic approach
This course will:
- Learn the basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical the implementation of these techniques to upstream project
- Enable participants to identify and quantifying risk using probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation
- Learn how to assess the value of information in managing the uncertainty of the upstream project using decision tree analysis
- Bring participants up to date on recent development in project modeling and evaluation using advance valuation techniques.
The course/workshop comprises 12 chapters
with respective workshops where the attendee will apply the theory in a real
upstream project data set. To achieve this, the attendee will use the free
SIPMath add in excel for probabilistic risk analysis, and excel spreadsheet for
real options analysis.
Day 1:
Conventional Analysis
1.
Introduction – Fundamental of Upstream project
2.
Key Valuation Measure:
Undiscounted Cash Flow Analysis
(IRR, Pay Out Time)
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (NPV,
PI)
Workshop 1: Building a PSC cash flow model
3.
Identifying sources of uncertainty – Sensitivity
analysis (spider and tornado charts)
Workshop 2: Building a sensitivity model using data table
function
4. Building economic analysis for
different reserve and development scenario
Workshop 3: Building a scenario model using index match
function
Day 2: Probabilistic
and Decision Tree Analysis
1. Introduction
to uncertainty and risk – Monte Carlo simulation;
Workshop 4: Building a
quantitative Monte Carlo model using SIPMath tools.
2. Quantifying variable
uncertainty in upstream project using simulations techniques;
Workshop 5: Assessing the
effect of variable uncertainty on project’s NPV.
3. Introduction
to decision tree scenario analysis.
Workshop 6:
Building a
decision tree analysis for Exploration drilling decision.
4. Quantifying
Value of Information (VOI) in appraisal drilling or seismic activity;
Workshop 7: Assessing VOI
in appraisal drilling prior to Final Development Decision (FID).
Harvard Business Case Study:
Penzoil vs Texaco
Day 3:
Modern Real Option Analysis
1. Introduction
to real options analysis – Birth and institution behind Real Options
2. Conventional
vs Modern Valuation
Workshop 8: Fundamental difference between DCF vs Modern
3. Market
Comparable – Modern Valuation techniques (Paddock Siegel and Smith model)
Workshop 10: Valuation undeveloped reserve
4. Implementing
Real Options in merger and acquisition process
Workshop 11: Case Study In
Indonesia:
·
Acquisition
of Hess Assets in Indonesia
·
Pertamina vs
Shell in Semai V tender
·
Acquisition
of PSC block in East Java
Computer Requirements
As the course is
Excel-Based, it would be highly desirable if participants could bring with them
their own laptop computer
Training Material
1. Extensive set of
course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical
valuation examples.
2. Excel Spreadsheets
Model .
3. Free SIPMath
software for Monte Carlo Simulation
REGISTRATION INFO
Xperiential and Professional Training (XP
training)
Ngemplak Karangjati Jl. Monjali No. 45 RT. 003 RW 036
Sinduadi Mlati Sleman Yogyakarta 55284
E-mail:
training@xp-training.info
CP : Anton Wibowo
(08118202389), Indah cahyani (08122758968), Naila Zahara (081321754000)
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